Kamala Harris Gets ‘Good News’ from Republican Strategist Amid Polling Slip

Vice President Kamala Harris received good news today from a Republican strategist after recent polling has dipped behind that of former President Donald Trump.
A new poll by The New York Times/Siena College—widely regarded as the most accurate pollster in the United States—revealed Trump with a narrow 1-point lead over Harris.
However, Sarah Longwell, co-founder of Defending Democracy Together and president of the Republican Accountability PAC, argued that Democrats have little reason to be alarmed.
“This poll may have surprised some Democrats and sent them into a panic. It shouldn’t have,” Longwell wrote on The Bulwark Substack, a platform which claims “No partisan loyalties. No tribal prejudices.”
Harris previously enjoyed a “honeymoon period” in the polls after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in mid-July due to concerns about his mental sharpness, which had surfaced during a debate with Trump. During this period, Harris’s numbers surged for about a month.
Longwell’s insight underscores a crucial factor: Harris tends to improve in favorability the more exposure she receives.
“I’ve conducted nearly a dozen focus groups with swing and persuadable voters since Harris became the nominee, and in those conversations, it’s clear that the VP still has work to do with these voters,” Longwell explained. “However, if you look at the numbers and listen to these people, it’s evident that Harris has room to win them over—Trump far less so.”
Longwell noted that Harris has an opportunity to win over voters and pull ahead, with the presidential debates offering a prime chance to do so.
“The good news is that the more voters see of her, the more they seem to like her. It’s always been the opposite for Trump,” she said.
Democrats have seen a surge in enthusiasm and a significant boost in the polls since President Joe Biden made the unprecedented decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race on July 21, endorsing his vice president, Harris, to replace him at the top of the ticket.
However, the race has remained close, with most polls showing Harris or Trump only narrowly ahead within the margin of error or tied. While the recent bump in support for Harris is notable, polling experts remain cautious, emphasizing the ongoing issues with polling accuracy that have affected recent elections, especially when Trump is involved.
“One of the main challenges is that Trump’s base is harder to reach through traditional polling methods,” Scott Keeter, a senior fellow at the Pew Research Center, told Newsweek in a recent interview. “Trump supporters tend to have lower levels of trust in institutions, including those conducting polls, which can skew results.”
A potential concern with Harris’s current polling numbers is that they might reflect a temporary “bounce”—a short-term boost driven by positive, event-focused media coverage. These spikes often occur after debates or conventions, and Harris’s recent surge follows a familiar pattern.
Despite the renewed optimism throughout the convention and campaign, Democrats are tempering their enthusiasm, as polls show a tight race in key swing states. Harris has been quick to remind voters in every rally she has attended that they remain “the underdogs.”
The polling averages in the key battleground states for 2024 currently show a close race as well.
The average by the Times has Harris very narrowly ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The candidates are tied in Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona. FiveThirtyEight’s average has Trump up in Arizona and North Carolina, while Harris leads narrowly in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
With the race tighter than ever, Trump and Harris are preparing for Tuesday’s presidential debate in contrasting ways, setting the stage for a showdown that will highlight their differing visions for the country and their unique approaches to handling high-pressure moments.
On Wednesday, ABC News released guidelines for the September 10 debate, which will be moderated by David Muir and Linsey Davis. The 90-minute event will mark the first faceoff between the 2024 candidates.
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